A Super El Niño Is Building Fast — and It Could Be the Strongest in Recorded History

What NOAA Is Saying

NOAA released an updated El Niño forecast on August 13 that raised the stakes significantly. The agency now puts the odds of a very strong — or Super — El Niño at above 90 percent for fall and winter 2026-27. More striking, there is a 69 percent chance the event will rank as the strongest El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950. That is up from 81 percent odds in July and 63 percent in June. The numbers keep climbing with each new forecast.
The current NOAA Multivariate ENSO Index reached a record-high June-July value of +2.4 — the highest for that period in the NOAA record since it began in 1979. Values above +2 are found only during the strongest El Niño events, but not this early in the season.

How Fast It Is Growing

The speed of this event is what sets it apart. The index underwent an exceptional 3.4-point jump in just four bi-monthly periods, climbing from a cool -1 in February-March to +2.4 in June-July. Sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific are now running more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. Three separate forecasting centers — NOAA’s CFSv2 model, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology — all show the same trajectory: a projected 2026 peak currently higher than any previous Super El Niño event.

What Drives It

An oceanic Kelvin wave — a pulse of unusually warm water moving eastward beneath the Pacific surface — has been feeding heat into the system throughout 2026. That subsurface reservoir, combined with record global ocean temperatures, has accelerated the event’s development at a pace forecasters describe as extraordinary.

What It Means for the US This Winter

In the US, a Super El Niño winter can mean unusually wet conditions from California across the southern tier of the country, all the way to Florida. El Niño winters also tend to be milder and drier than average in parts of the Midwest.
The jet stream shifts southward during strong El Niño events. That pushes more storms into the southern United States and keeps warmer, drier air across the northern states. The southern plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast face higher odds of ice storms and freezing rain. The Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes region, and New England face higher odds of a warmer and drier winter than average.
Florida is a particular concern. Research from Columbia University has shown that strong El Niño events increase the odds of severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreaks across Florida during winter months.
NOAA cautions that a record-breaking El Niño event could produce atmospheric impacts never before seen.

produce atmospheric impacts never before seen.

Hurricane Season and Global Temperatures
El Niño is already suppressing this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. Increased wind shear over the tropical Atlantic makes it harder for storms to organize. NOAA cited the Super El Niño as the primary reason for its below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast released earlier this summer.
On the global temperature side, climate scientists note that a strong El Niño releases stored ocean heat into the atmosphere. That effect, layered on top of long-term warming from fossil fuel emissions, means 2026 and 2027 are likely to set new global average temperature records regardless of where the El Niño eventually peaks.

When It Peaks

All three major forecasting centers point to late fall 2026 or early winter 2027 as the likely peak. That is when El Niño’s influence on Northern Hemisphere weather is typically strongest. By spring 2027, NOAA expects the event to begin weakening.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, CNN, Fox Weather, Newsweek, Severe Weather Europe, StormBag